Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | PROV +250 MARQ -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +28 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | MARQ -5.9 (-22.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.5 (-10.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -6.3 (-21.7) | 137.8 (-9.8) | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -3.3 (-24.7) | 138.4 (-10.4) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -5.1 (-22.9) | 138.2 (-10.2) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -5.5 (-22.5) | 138.0 (-10.0) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | MARQ 78 – 56 PROV |
| Jan 19, 2026 | MARQ 105 – 104 PROV |
| Feb 26, 2025 | MARQ 82 – 52 PROV |
| Mar 16, 2024 | MARQ 79 – 68 PROV |
| Feb 29, 2024 | MARQ 91 – 69 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 13-7 |
| Home | 10-6 | 14-3 |
| Away | 2-9 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L6 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 7.0 (#81) | 17.1 (#17) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#91) | 3.66 (#10) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.60 (#84) | 5.11 (#8) |
| RPI | 0.584 (#49) | 0.671 (#6) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 40.1 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 13.2% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.1% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 23.0% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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