Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | MARQ -200 PROV +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +11 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | MARQ -6.6 (+4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.3 (+4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -4.9 (+6.1) | 140.6 (+6.4) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -5.1 (+5.9) | 141.1 (+5.9) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -5.3 (+5.7) | 141.9 (+5.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -5.4 (+5.6) | 141.7 (+5.3) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | MARQ 78 – 56 PROV |
| Jan 19, 2026 | MARQ 105 – 104 PROV |
| Feb 26, 2025 | MARQ 82 – 52 PROV |
| Dec 31, 2024 | MARQ 78 – 50 PROV |
| Feb 29, 2024 | MARQ 91 – 69 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-10 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 10-10 |
| Home | 14-2 | 14-5 |
| Away | 7-5 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.1 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 16.8 (#15) | 10.2 (#53) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.73 (#8) | 1.71 (#53) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.29 (#8) | 2.15 (#53) |
| RPI | 0.612 (#14) | 0.550 (#79) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.61 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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