Betting Lines
| Spread | UPST -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | UPST -200 PRES +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UPST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UPST +1 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | UPST -7.0 (-6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.3 (-11.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UPST -5.1 (-4.1) | 133.6 (-12.6) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UPST -4.2 (-3.2) | 132.1 (-11.1) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UPST -5.2 (-4.2) | 137.8 (-16.8) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UPST -5.4 (-4.4) | 138.0 (-17.0) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UPST 76 – 74 PRES |
| Jan 3, 2026 | PRES 86 – 77 UPST |
| Feb 6, 2025 | PRES 75 – 64 UPST |
| Jan 9, 2025 | UPST 77 – 67 PRES |
| Feb 29, 2024 | UPST 74 – 72 PRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UPST | PRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 5-27 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 1-17 |
| Home | 11-2 | 5-9 |
| Away | 4-12 | 0-15 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L18 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.2 | 61.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 70.4 |
| Massey | -6.7 (#289) | -10.0 (#332) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.53 (#224) | -2.70 (#354) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.94 (#245) | -2.83 (#346) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#242) | 0.347 (#358) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UPST | PRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 29.0 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 61.9% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.9% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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