Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | TLSA +125 SMU -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +3 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | SMU -0.9 (-2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.5 (+9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -2.1 (-0.9) | 146.3 (+8.7) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -1.7 (-1.3) | 146.8 (+8.2) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -1.5 (-1.5) | 147.6 (+7.4) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -1.3 (-1.7) | 148.4 (+6.6) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 20, 2024 | SMU 103 – 70 TLSA |
| Jan 1, 2023 | SMU 92 – 67 TLSA |
| Mar 12, 2022 | SMU 83 – 58 TLSA |
| Feb 24, 2022 | SMU 75 – 61 TLSA |
| Dec 30, 2021 | SMU 74 – 69 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-25 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 5-13 |
| Home | 4-10 | 7-9 |
| Away | 0-12 | 1-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L12 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.3 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 75.6 |
| Massey | -6.1 (#274) | -1.4 (#204) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.59 (#313) | -0.56 (#229) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.59 (#294) | -0.22 (#195) |
| RPI | 0.412 (#324) | 0.494 (#184) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 15.5% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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