Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +5 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | SMU -2.4 (-2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.3 (-2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -2.0 (-3.0) | 144.1 (-1.1) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -2.2 (-2.8) | 144.8 (-1.8) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -2.4 (-2.6) | 146.6 (-3.6) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -2.2 (-2.8) | 144.0 (-1.0) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 20, 2024 | SMU 103 – 70 TLSA |
| Jan 19, 2023 | SMU 79 – 76 TLSA |
| Jan 1, 2023 | SMU 92 – 67 TLSA |
| Mar 12, 2022 | SMU 83 – 58 TLSA |
| Feb 24, 2022 | SMU 75 – 61 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 13-4 |
| Home | 8-8 | 17-1 |
| Away | 1-10 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 67.1 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#193) | 5.9 (#90) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#213) | 0.85 (#106) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#195) | 1.10 (#107) |
| RPI | 0.463 (#242) | 0.525 (#129) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 38.3% |
| REB / G | 30.4 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 44.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.1% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.0% | 16.9% |
Game Analysis
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