Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | SMU -1000 TLSA +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +33 | 173 | Won |
| Massey | SMU -14.8 (+18.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.1 (+34.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -13.5 (+19.5) | 144.3 (+28.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -13.8 (+19.2) | 139.9 (+33.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -13.2 (+19.8) | 140.6 (+32.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -13.5 (+19.5) | 142.6 (+30.4) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 19, 2023 | SMU 79 – 76 TLSA |
| Jan 1, 2023 | SMU 92 – 67 TLSA |
| Mar 12, 2022 | SMU 83 – 58 TLSA |
| Feb 24, 2022 | SMU 75 – 61 TLSA |
| Dec 30, 2021 | SMU 74 – 69 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 14-3 | 14-4 |
| Away | 5-8 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.7 | 74.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 74.5 |
| Massey | 11.7 (#38) | 0.6 (#156) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.41 (#72) | -0.46 (#223) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.09 (#62) | -0.51 (#222) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#92) | 0.446 (#271) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 37.7% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 30.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.3% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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