Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | SMU -333 TLSA +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +25 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | SMU -8.4 (+16.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.1 (+18.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -7.4 (+17.6) | 144.8 (+14.2) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -5.1 (+19.9) | 141.4 (+17.6) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -5.2 (+19.8) | 140.4 (+18.6) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -5.6 (+19.4) | 142.1 (+16.9) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 20, 2024 | SMU 103 – 70 TLSA |
| Jan 19, 2023 | SMU 79 – 76 TLSA |
| Mar 12, 2022 | SMU 83 – 58 TLSA |
| Feb 24, 2022 | SMU 75 – 61 TLSA |
| Dec 30, 2021 | SMU 74 – 69 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 5-25 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 1-17 |
| Home | 7-9 | 4-10 |
| Away | 1-11 | 0-12 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L12 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 65.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 77.4 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#191) | -5.1 (#263) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#204) | -1.07 (#277) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.13 (#157) | -1.11 (#257) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#189) | 0.435 (#295) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 15.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 65.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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