SMU
Mustangs
83
–
58
FINAL
Neutral
Conference
Air Force Reserve American Athletic Conference
Tulsa
Golden Hurricane
Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -10.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | SMU -500 TLSA +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +25 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | SMU -8.8 (+16.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.2 (+1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -7.5 (+17.5) | 138.8 (+2.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -8.7 (+16.3) | 139.4 (+1.6) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -8.2 (+16.8) | 139.2 (+1.8) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -8.2 (+16.8) | 138.3 (+2.7) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 20, 2024 | SMU 103 – 70 TLSA |
| Jan 19, 2023 | SMU 79 – 76 TLSA |
| Jan 1, 2023 | SMU 92 – 67 TLSA |
| Feb 24, 2022 | SMU 75 – 61 TLSA |
| Dec 30, 2021 | SMU 74 – 69 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 13-4 | 4-14 |
| Home | 17-1 | 8-8 |
| Away | 6-5 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 9.6 (#55) | 0.8 (#153) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.83 (#48) | -0.37 (#204) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.13 (#53) | -0.20 (#193) |
| RPI | 0.579 (#45) | 0.450 (#267) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.3% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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