Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +14 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | SMU -11.6 (+2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (-6.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -11.3 (+2.7) | 142.0 (-6.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -11.1 (+2.9) | 143.5 (-7.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -10.7 (+3.3) | 143.2 (-7.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -11.3 (+2.7) | 142.0 (-6.0) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 20, 2024 | SMU 103 – 70 TLSA |
| Jan 19, 2023 | SMU 79 – 76 TLSA |
| Jan 1, 2023 | SMU 92 – 67 TLSA |
| Mar 12, 2022 | SMU 83 – 58 TLSA |
| Dec 30, 2021 | SMU 74 – 69 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 13-4 | 4-14 |
| Home | 17-1 | 8-8 |
| Away | 6-5 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 9.6 (#52) | 0.8 (#150) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.81 (#50) | -0.51 (#220) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.11 (#54) | -0.26 (#196) |
| RPI | 0.585 (#45) | 0.451 (#264) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.3% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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