Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | CSU +163 SDSU -213 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +6 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | SDSU -3.2 (-2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.0 (+12.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -3.5 (-2.5) | 148.2 (+9.8) | 38% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -3.3 (-2.7) | 143.5 (+14.5) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -3.4 (-2.6) | 146.8 (+11.2) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -2.7 (-3.3) | 146.6 (+11.4) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | SDSU 71 – 62 CSU |
| Feb 21, 2026 | CSU 83 – 74 SDSU |
| Jan 29, 2026 | SDSU 73 – 50 CSU |
| Feb 9, 2025 | CSU 68 – 63 SDSU |
| Jan 15, 2025 | SDSU 75 – 60 CSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 32-7 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 15-3 |
| Home | 9-7 | 15-1 |
| Away | 4-8 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 9-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 63.6 |
| Massey | 4.2 (#108) | 11.1 (#33) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.55 (#120) | 1.97 (#40) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#147) | 2.47 (#41) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#117) | 0.616 (#19) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 30.1 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 5.1 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.64 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.6% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 16.4% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 75.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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