Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | SDSU -300 CSU +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +15 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | SDSU -9.6 (+5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.9 (+5.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -8.5 (+6.5) | 132.0 (+3.0) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -7.8 (+7.2) | 130.5 (+4.5) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -8.2 (+6.8) | 130.8 (+4.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -7.9 (+7.1) | 133.7 (+1.3) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | SDSU 71 – 62 CSU |
| Feb 21, 2026 | CSU 83 – 74 SDSU |
| Jan 29, 2026 | SDSU 73 – 50 CSU |
| Feb 9, 2025 | CSU 68 – 63 SDSU |
| Feb 14, 2024 | SDSU 71 – 55 CSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-10 | 26-10 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 16-4 |
| Home | 12-3 | 14-2 |
| Away | 6-4 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 67.3 |
| Massey | 12.5 (#46) | 6.7 (#82) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.46 (#35) | 0.99 (#92) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.19 (#36) | 1.42 (#85) |
| RPI | 0.615 (#33) | 0.531 (#122) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 24.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.4% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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