Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | SDSU -250 CSU +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +16 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | SDSU -4.2 (+11.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (-16.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -5.4 (+10.6) | 137.6 (-11.6) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -4.2 (+11.8) | 140.8 (-14.8) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -4.1 (+11.9) | 140.5 (-14.5) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -4.8 (+11.2) | 140.7 (-14.7) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | SDSU 71 – 62 CSU |
| Feb 21, 2026 | CSU 83 – 74 SDSU |
| Jan 29, 2026 | SDSU 73 – 50 CSU |
| Feb 9, 2025 | CSU 68 – 63 SDSU |
| Jan 15, 2025 | SDSU 75 – 60 CSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-11 | 25-11 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-1 | 15-2 |
| Away | 6-8 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 13.5 (#24) | 12.7 (#35) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.51 (#17) | 2.36 (#21) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.06 (#16) | 2.95 (#19) |
| RPI | 0.648 (#5) | 0.626 (#12) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 49.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 7.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 56.7% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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