Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | CSU -140 SDSU +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +5 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | SDSU -0.6 (+5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.7 (-1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -1.4 (+3.6) | 135.6 (-4.6) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -1.4 (+3.6) | 135.7 (-4.7) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -0.9 (+4.1) | 134.0 (-3.0) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -0.8 (+4.2) | 134.7 (-3.7) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | SDSU 71 – 62 CSU |
| Feb 21, 2026 | CSU 83 – 74 SDSU |
| Jan 29, 2026 | SDSU 73 – 50 CSU |
| Jan 15, 2025 | SDSU 75 – 60 CSU |
| Feb 14, 2024 | SDSU 71 – 55 CSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-10 | 21-10 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 14-6 |
| Home | 14-2 | 12-3 |
| Away | 7-4 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 65.2 |
| Massey | 7.2 (#82) | 10.9 (#54) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.29 (#75) | 2.25 (#43) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.63 (#75) | 2.90 (#44) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#102) | 0.596 (#37) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 44.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
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