Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | SDSU -455 CSU +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +23 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | SDSU -7.6 (+15.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.1 (-26.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -8.0 (+15.0) | 138.8 (-15.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -8.3 (+14.7) | 139.0 (-16.0) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -7.6 (+15.4) | 140.7 (-17.7) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -7.0 (+16.0) | 139.5 (-16.5) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | SDSU 71 – 62 CSU |
| Feb 21, 2026 | CSU 83 – 74 SDSU |
| Feb 9, 2025 | CSU 68 – 63 SDSU |
| Jan 15, 2025 | SDSU 75 – 60 CSU |
| Feb 14, 2024 | SDSU 71 – 55 CSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 11-9 |
| Home | 14-2 | 12-6 |
| Away | 5-5 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 10.9 (#54) | 6.4 (#93) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.08 (#48) | 0.75 (#102) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.00 (#41) | 1.27 (#93) |
| RPI | 0.598 (#36) | 0.519 (#130) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 49.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 41.5% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 59.6% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 29.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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