Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | CSU +136 SDSU -162 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +9 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | SDSU -2.7 (+11.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.4 (+13.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -3.0 (+12.0) | 138.7 (+18.3) | 38% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -0.8 (+9.8) | 138.7 (+18.3) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -0.5 (+9.5) | 138.2 (+18.8) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -1.0 (+10.0) | 138.7 (+18.3) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | SDSU 71 – 62 CSU |
| Jan 29, 2026 | SDSU 73 – 50 CSU |
| Feb 9, 2025 | CSU 68 – 63 SDSU |
| Jan 15, 2025 | SDSU 75 – 60 CSU |
| Feb 14, 2024 | SDSU 71 – 55 CSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 14-6 |
| Home | 12-6 | 14-2 |
| Away | 6-5 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 6.2 (#94) | 11.9 (#47) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.97 (#92) | 1.89 (#54) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.40 (#87) | 2.62 (#48) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#105) | 0.584 (#45) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 39.4% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.4% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 30.4% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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