Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | DEP +310 XAV -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEP +1 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -9.4 (+10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.3 (-17.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -7.7 (+8.7) | 157.5 (-12.5) | 21% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -6.7 (+7.7) | 157.2 (-12.2) | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -7.5 (+8.5) | 157.4 (-12.4) | 19% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -7.9 (+8.9) | 157.2 (-12.2) | 22% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | XAV 68 – 66 DEP |
| Jan 3, 2026 | DEP 86 – 77 XAV |
| Feb 15, 2025 | XAV 85 – 68 DEP |
| Jan 11, 2025 | XAV 77 – 63 DEP |
| Feb 29, 2024 | XAV 91 – 58 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEP | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-23 | 27-10 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 15-5 |
| Home | 7-8 | 15-2 |
| Away | 2-12 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.3 | 74.1 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#168) | 13.4 (#19) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.27 (#150) | 2.78 (#13) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#139) | 3.63 (#11) |
| RPI | 0.511 (#154) | 0.632 (#11) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEP | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 50.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 40.2% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 56.7% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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