Betting Lines
| Spread | COLG -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | HC +700 COLG -900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLG +6 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | COLG -10.6 (+4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.2 (+1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLG -10.9 (+4.9) | 142.8 (+5.2) | 16% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLG -11.6 (+5.6) | 141.9 (+6.1) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLG -10.0 (+4.0) | 144.3 (+3.7) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COLG -9.9 (+3.9) | 144.5 (+3.5) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | COLG 74 – 70 HC |
| Jan 29, 2026 | COLG 79 – 74 HC |
| Feb 27, 2025 | COLG 81 – 73 HC |
| Feb 12, 2025 | COLG 87 – 65 HC |
| Mar 8, 2024 | COLG 81 – 64 HC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HC | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 26-9 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 17-1 |
| Home | 6-9 | 14-2 |
| Away | 4-11 | 11-4 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.2 | 77.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.1 | 69.6 |
| Massey | -11.2 (#341) | 3.2 (#119) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.06 (#341) | 0.20 (#156) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.46 (#335) | 0.56 (#129) |
| RPI | 0.393 (#341) | 0.511 (#155) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HC | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 51.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 40.8% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 58.5% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 22.2% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 15.6% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 15.6% |
Game Analysis
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