Betting Lines
| Spread | COLG -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | HC +330 COLG -425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLG +4 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | COLG -5.7 (+1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.4 (+0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLG -5.0 (+1.0) | 141.7 (+2.3) | 35% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLG -5.3 (+1.3) | 140.1 (+3.9) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLG -5.3 (+1.3) | 140.4 (+3.6) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COLG -5.1 (+1.1) | 141.3 (+2.7) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | COLG 79 – 74 HC |
| Feb 27, 2025 | COLG 81 – 73 HC |
| Feb 12, 2025 | COLG 87 – 65 HC |
| Mar 8, 2024 | COLG 81 – 64 HC |
| Feb 29, 2024 | COLG 77 – 58 HC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HC | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 11-7 |
| Home | 6-8 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-14 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 76.2 |
| Massey | -10.6 (#317) | -1.8 (#196) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.83 (#319) | -0.60 (#223) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.46 (#327) | -0.52 (#210) |
| RPI | 0.413 (#326) | 0.506 (#168) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HC | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 30.3 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 21.4% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.9% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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