Betting Lines
| Spread | COLG -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | HC +600 COLG -700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLG +19 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | COLG -13.0 (-6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.5 (-1.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLG -12.0 (-7.0) | 136.1 (-1.1) | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLG -12.3 (-6.7) | 134.3 (+0.7) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLG -12.1 (-6.9) | 134.6 (+0.4) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COLG -11.4 (-7.6) | 135.8 (-0.8) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | COLG 74 – 70 HC |
| Jan 29, 2026 | COLG 79 – 74 HC |
| Feb 27, 2025 | COLG 81 – 73 HC |
| Feb 12, 2025 | COLG 87 – 65 HC |
| Mar 8, 2024 | COLG 81 – 64 HC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HC | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-23 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 16-2 |
| Home | 5-8 | 13-3 |
| Away | 4-14 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.8 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 64.9 |
| Massey | -14.5 (#349) | 1.9 (#139) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.49 (#348) | 0.28 (#147) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.28 (#349) | 0.26 (#154) |
| RPI | 0.394 (#342) | 0.546 (#95) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HC | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 23.3% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 17.1% | 18.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.4% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 17.1% |
Game Analysis
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