Betting Lines
| Spread | COLG -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | HC +180 COLG -215 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLG +22 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | HC -0.7 (-22.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.9 (+11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HC -1.2 (-23.2) | 140.0 (+12.0) | 57% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLG -0.3 (-21.7) | 140.1 (+11.9) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HC -1.4 (-23.4) | 138.7 (+13.3) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HC -1.2 (-23.2) | 139.7 (+12.3) | 58% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | COLG 74 – 70 HC |
| Jan 29, 2026 | COLG 79 – 74 HC |
| Feb 27, 2025 | COLG 81 – 73 HC |
| Mar 8, 2024 | COLG 81 – 64 HC |
| Feb 29, 2024 | COLG 77 – 58 HC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HC | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 10-8 |
| Home | 7-6 | 10-4 |
| Away | 4-13 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -7.9 (#292) | -5.4 (#252) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.90 (#251) | -1.15 (#274) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.32 (#269) | -1.35 (#272) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#226) | 0.452 (#260) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HC | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 22.9% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 15.6% | 16.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.0% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.3% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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