Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | NAVY -125 BU +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAVY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +18 | 108 | Won |
| Massey | NAVY -4.1 (+13.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.5 (-32.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -1.8 (+16.2) | 141.4 (-33.4) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -2.0 (+16.0) | 138.3 (-30.3) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -2.1 (+15.9) | 141.8 (-33.8) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -2.0 (+16.0) | 141.6 (-33.6) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | BU 73 – 72 NAVY |
| Jan 29, 2026 | NAVY 58 – 50 BU |
| Dec 31, 2025 | NAVY 82 – 77 BU |
| Mar 7, 2025 | NAVY 86 – 78 BU |
| Feb 6, 2025 | BU 87 – 65 NAVY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAVY | BU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-13 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 8-10 |
| Home | 9-6 | 9-4 |
| Away | 9-7 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.3 | 67.7 |
| Massey | -3.4 (#235) | -3.7 (#236) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.91 (#267) | -0.84 (#260) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.23 (#269) | -1.23 (#270) |
| RPI | 0.447 (#274) | 0.461 (#246) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAVY | BU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 39.5% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 15.0% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 27.6% |
Game Analysis
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