Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | NAVY -310 BU +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAVY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BU +1 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | NAVY -9.8 (-10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.4 (+1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -9.0 (-10.0) | 138.7 (+6.3) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -9.8 (-10.8) | 138.7 (+6.3) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -9.8 (-10.8) | 138.8 (+6.2) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -10.7 (-11.7) | 138.2 (+6.8) | 84% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | NAVY 58 – 50 BU |
| Dec 31, 2025 | NAVY 82 – 77 BU |
| Mar 7, 2025 | NAVY 86 – 78 BU |
| Feb 6, 2025 | BU 87 – 65 NAVY |
| Jan 23, 2025 | NAVY 62 – 47 BU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAVY | BU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 10-8 |
| Home | 15-2 | 10-5 |
| Away | 10-5 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 74.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 74.5 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#146) | -5.6 (#255) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#128) | -1.29 (#283) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.11 (#154) | -1.74 (#289) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#107) | 0.450 (#277) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAVY | BU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 49.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 39.3% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 57.8% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 29.3% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 13.3% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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