Betting Lines
| Spread | BU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | BU -165 NAVY +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +8 | 164 | Lost |
| Massey | BU -2.2 (-10.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.0 (+32.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BU -0.3 (-8.3) | 133.8 (+30.2) | 55% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BU -1.4 (-9.4) | 132.4 (+31.6) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BU -0.6 (-8.6) | 132.4 (+31.6) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BU -0.7 (-8.7) | 133.0 (+31.0) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | BU 73 – 72 NAVY |
| Jan 29, 2026 | NAVY 58 – 50 BU |
| Dec 31, 2025 | NAVY 82 – 77 BU |
| Feb 6, 2025 | BU 87 – 65 NAVY |
| Jan 23, 2025 | NAVY 62 – 47 BU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BU | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-4 | 9-5 |
| Away | 3-12 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 71.2 |
| Massey | -7.8 (#292) | -6.7 (#276) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.04 (#264) | -1.45 (#303) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.42 (#272) | -1.69 (#290) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#248) | 0.431 (#312) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BU | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 77.2% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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