Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | NAVY -218 BU +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAVY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +5 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | NAVY -7.8 (-2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.8 (+12.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -5.5 (-0.5) | 137.6 (+21.4) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -5.0 (-0.0) | 138.9 (+20.1) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -4.7 (+0.3) | 140.7 (+18.3) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -6.2 (-1.2) | 137.3 (+21.7) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | BU 73 – 72 NAVY |
| Jan 29, 2026 | NAVY 58 – 50 BU |
| Mar 7, 2025 | NAVY 86 – 78 BU |
| Feb 6, 2025 | BU 87 – 65 NAVY |
| Jan 23, 2025 | NAVY 62 – 47 BU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAVY | BU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 10-8 |
| Home | 15-2 | 10-5 |
| Away | 10-5 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 74.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -3.1 (#211) | -6.9 (#278) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.63 (#235) | -1.64 (#299) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#237) | -3.27 (#334) |
| RPI | 0.472 (#225) | 0.406 (#327) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAVY | BU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 31.5% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 56.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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