Betting Lines
| Spread | BU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | BU -125 NAVY +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BU +22 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | BU -1.5 (+20.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.2 (+20.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -0.1 (+22.1) | 132.0 (+20.0) | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BU -1.0 (+21.0) | 130.7 (+21.3) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BU -0.3 (+21.7) | 131.4 (+20.6) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BU -0.6 (+21.4) | 131.4 (+20.6) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | BU 73 – 72 NAVY |
| Jan 29, 2026 | NAVY 58 – 50 BU |
| Dec 31, 2025 | NAVY 82 – 77 BU |
| Mar 7, 2025 | NAVY 86 – 78 BU |
| Jan 23, 2025 | NAVY 62 – 47 BU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BU | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-4 | 9-5 |
| Away | 3-12 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 71.2 |
| Massey | -8.2 (#295) | -6.5 (#269) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.13 (#266) | -1.74 (#323) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.54 (#278) | -1.92 (#306) |
| RPI | 0.447 (#264) | 0.406 (#330) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BU | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 76.5% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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