Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | NAVY -125 BU +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAVY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +15 | 109 | Won |
| Massey | NAVY -2.9 (+12.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.8 (-24.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -1.9 (+13.1) | 127.2 (-18.2) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -1.1 (+13.9) | 129.6 (-20.6) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -1.4 (+13.6) | 129.8 (-20.8) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -2.1 (+12.9) | 128.4 (-19.4) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | BU 73 – 72 NAVY |
| Jan 29, 2026 | NAVY 58 – 50 BU |
| Dec 31, 2025 | NAVY 82 – 77 BU |
| Mar 7, 2025 | NAVY 86 – 78 BU |
| Feb 6, 2025 | BU 87 – 65 NAVY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAVY | BU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-19 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 9-5 | 12-4 |
| Away | 6-12 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 68.3 |
| Massey | -8.5 (#303) | -8.0 (#296) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.29 (#337) | -1.06 (#262) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.70 (#332) | -1.45 (#275) |
| RPI | 0.364 (#353) | 0.441 (#279) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAVY | BU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 21.9% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 76.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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