I have got the sharpest knife, so I get the biggest slice. "Revolution Rock" - The Clash
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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33–22 on winners spread MAE 9.9 55 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Lafayette @ Lehigh +1.2 131.9 52% 49–61 ✓
Valparaiso @ Illinois State +4.2 137.3 68% 71–51 ✗
Charlotte @ Western Kentucky -1.9 132.4 44% 75–71 ✓
Incarnate Word @ Lamar +0.4 144.8 50% 70–64 ✗
UT Arlington @ Abilene Christian +2.3 137.9 62% 68–84 ✓
App State @ Old Dominion +4.7 134.1 67% 72–58 ✗
Robert Morris @ Green Bay -7.1 139.7 18% 72–38 ✓
Youngstown State @ Milwaukee -1.8 156.6 40% 75–88 ✗
Cleveland State @ Wright State +0.1 145.4 46% 85–77 ✗
Kennesaw State @ Florida Gulf Coast +2.3 143.3 62% 65–63 ✗
Grambling @ Mississippi Valley State -10.3 132.8 16% 65–61 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Alabama State -2.6 135.1 37% 55–56 ✗
Tulane @ Tulsa -7.7 159.2 28% 79–81 ✗
Washington @ Utah +6.6 139.3 75% 61–86 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Houston Christian -9.8 156.8 20% 78–90 ✗
Utah Valley @ Grand Canyon +1.1 143.9 53% 76–74 ✗
Santa Clara @ Saint Mary's +11.3 137.7 85% 58–77 ✓
BYU @ San Francisco +1.0 148.0 57% 74–82 ✓
Portland State @ Idaho State +0.7 148.6 54% 72–65 ✗
Idaho @ Northern Colorado +2.9 150.7 66% 67–73 ✓
Florida @ Mississippi State +1.8 127.3 59% 61–59 ✗
Central Arkansas @ North Alabama +4.7 159.2 75% 66–82 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ UTEP -6.4 134.6 27% 67–59 ✓
New Mexico State @ Utah Tech +2.0 145.6 66% 76–89 ✓
Sacramento State @ Weber State +1.2 132.1 59% 48–50 ✓
Montana State @ Montana +0.3 136.6 45% 67–64 ✗
Gonzaga @ Pacific -12.5 163.1 14% 99–90 ✓
USC @ Arizona State +4.3 138.4 72% 77–69 ✗
San Diego State @ Air Force -5.4 139.9 29% 70–60 ✓
Tarleton State @ California Baptist +2.9 132.6 61% 48–77 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Santa Barbara +12.7 125.5 86% 58–76 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Cal State Northridge -7.8 131.7 23% 66–69 ✗
Oregon @ Stanford -2.3 138.9 40% 64–71 ✗
Butler @ UConn +11.4 139.8 87% 56–86 ✓
Michigan State @ Indiana +5.5 140.2 75% 69–82 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Long Island University -8.1 136.4 17% 58–42 ✓
Maryland @ Purdue +10.7 132.4 83% 55–58 ✓
Memphis @ Cincinnati +2.3 150.9 61% 75–68 ✗
NJIT @ Vermont +9.2 137.5 82% 69–85 ✓
Bryant @ UMass Lowell +3.3 156.1 69% 79–98 ✓
Minnesota @ Michigan +11.0 139.0 85% 56–60 ✓
Merrimack @ St. Francis Brooklyn +0.2 126.3 34% 63–55 ✗
Sacred Heart @ Wagner +3.4 135.2 63% 58–68 ✓
Binghamton @ Maine +2.7 140.1 59% 57–78 ✓
Fairfield @ Siena +7.8 134.1 79% 62–52 ✗
Niagara @ Saint Peter's -0.6 124.1 38% 59–57 ✓
Manhattan @ Rider +8.6 138.2 81% 65–67 ✓
Canisius @ Quinnipiac +11.8 138.9 87% 82–87 ✓
Marist @ Mount St. Mary's +3.2 127.4 59% 55–59 ✓
Temple @ Houston +20.2 135.1 90% 56–55 ✗
Wichita State @ SMU -0.2 136.1 47% 71–69 ✓
Oregon State @ California +1.7 131.7 54% 68–48 ✗
Furman @ Wofford -2.1 148.7 39% 96–82 ✓
Washington State @ Colorado +4.0 135.6 72% 55–58 ✓
Stonehill @ Fairleigh Dickinson +4.4 150.5 63% 70–59 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.