They smelled of pubs and Wormwood Scrubs and too many right wing meetings. "Down in the Tube Station at Midnight" - The Jam
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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83–45 on winners spread MAE 9.8 128 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
UConn @ Xavier +1.4 142.0 61% 68–74 ✓
Wright State @ Milwaukee -6.7 144.8 22% 57–60 ✗
Oakland @ Robert Morris -6.6 145.2 22% 71–68 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Youngstown State +1.4 140.8 64% 69–82 ✓
Rider @ Saint Peter's +8.8 134.0 78% 58–49 ✗
Monmouth @ Manhattan -4.7 143.1 34% 75–65 ✓
Kent State @ Akron +2.3 133.7 61% 66–64 ✗
Northern Kentucky @ Green Bay -5.2 132.3 22% 71–62 ✓
Nevada @ Utah State +12.6 146.6 87% 85–72 ✗
St. Bonaventure @ Saint Louis +7.3 143.6 80% 68–61 ✗
Iona @ Siena -8.5 141.4 21% 64–70 ✗
Fresno State @ Colorado State +3.8 133.8 71% 50–65 ✓
UNLV @ Boise State +7.7 133.6 76% 63–69 ✓
Texas A&M @ Auburn +11.8 148.8 85% 58–75 ✓
Texas @ Baylor +6.2 134.4 79% 63–80 ✓
Lafayette @ Lehigh +3.9 138.2 64% 73–69 ✗
Creighton @ Georgetown -4.6 141.2 27% 80–66 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Massachusetts +0.6 151.9 54% 67–69 ✓
Arkansas @ Alabama +4.3 157.1 72% 67–68 ✓
Oklahoma @ Kansas +10.3 147.7 85% 69–71 ✓
Seton Hall @ Villanova +8.7 138.8 83% 67–73 ✓
American University @ Boston University +11.0 139.8 86% 67–85 ✓
Merrimack @ Wagner +14.2 128.2 85% 80–65 ✗
Sacred Heart @ Fairleigh Dickinson -1.1 149.4 42% 75–82 ✗
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Central Connecticut -0.0 134.5 44% 67–50 ✓
Illinois State @ Indiana State +0.6 154.7 52% 57–60 ✓
Niagara @ Fairfield +1.6 131.4 63% 53–73 ✓
Navy @ Army -4.3 132.6 30% 52–49 ✓
Rutgers @ Wisconsin +7.6 132.5 79% 73–65 ✗
Holy Cross @ Bucknell +3.8 143.9 63% 78–72 ✗
North Carolina Central @ Morgan State -3.3 147.4 32% 74–64 ✓
Temple @ Tulane +4.5 139.6 71% 83–92 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Montana State +12.7 137.9 87% 70–72 ✓
Bryant @ Long Island University -0.1 158.4 52% 88–99 ✗
Charleston Southern @ Gardner-Webb +16.6 133.8 89% 65–82 ✓
Florida State @ North Carolina +7.0 147.6 77% 74–94 ✓
Yale @ Columbia -12.8 146.1 14% 84–59 ✓
Harvard @ Pennsylvania +2.6 142.1 67% 74–82 ✓
Brown @ Cornell +3.0 145.8 66% 81–80 ✗
New Hampshire @ Binghamton +0.8 134.9 49% 69–60 ✗
West Virginia @ Oklahoma State +2.5 138.6 64% 58–81 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Coastal Carolina +3.9 131.0 71% 58–79 ✓
George Washington @ Dayton +14.1 132.8 87% 54–80 ✓
Davidson @ Rhode Island -1.9 135.3 47% 65–72 ✗
Chattanooga @ Furman +3.1 142.6 65% 64–58 ✗
Northeastern @ Drexel +6.8 135.7 75% 51–67 ✓
Elon @ Towson +11.5 131.2 85% 50–86 ✓
Ball State @ Buffalo +11.9 156.3 86% 74–80 ✓
South Carolina @ Georgia -2.9 148.4 40% 80–68 ✓
North Texas @ Rice -3.8 134.5 26% 67–44 ✓
Sam Houston @ Chicago State -8.0 136.5 20% 72–59 ✓
Miami @ Wake Forest +7.1 151.5 78% 76–72 ✗
NC State @ Pittsburgh +0.8 139.1 55% 69–71 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Cleveland State +20.0 132.0 91% 45–83 ✓
Texas State @ UL Monroe -2.4 139.0 40% 63–54 ✓
UT Arlington @ Louisiana +4.0 139.2 68% 80–77 ✗
North Dakota @ Western Illinois +11.3 158.8 86% 68–70 ✓
Memphis @ Houston +12.3 143.4 86% 69–59 ✗
Indiana @ Michigan State +4.5 136.5 75% 61–76 ✓
The Citadel @ VMI +7.9 160.6 78% 83–79 ✗
Bowling Green @ Miami (OH) +0.7 155.7 64% 78–94 ✓
Ohio @ Eastern Michigan -9.2 148.6 20% 74–56 ✓
Florida @ Kentucky +11.3 143.7 86% 57–78 ✓
TCU @ Texas Tech +10.1 134.2 84% 69–82 ✓
Murray State @ Morehead State -3.2 131.7 47% 57–53 ✓
California @ Oregon +10.3 136.7 83% 78–64 ✗
South Carolina State @ Coppin State +3.5 144.5 62% 66–58 ✗
UC Riverside @ UC San Diego -2.4 135.2 41% 62–85 ✗
Bethune-Cookman @ Alcorn State +7.5 134.9 76% 71–63 ✗
Delaware State @ Howard +16.1 141.7 90% 72–85 ✓
Western Kentucky @ UTSA -9.3 146.3 17% 71–65 ✓
Southern Utah @ Sacramento State -6.8 142.7 23% 83–57 ✓
New Mexico State @ Utah Valley +0.3 137.0 55% 68–72 ✓
Lamar @ Seattle U +14.4 140.2 88% 50–76 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Saint Francis -1.8 134.6 40% 54–52 ✓
UNC Asheville @ South Carolina Upstate +1.1 147.5 57% 83–56 ✗
Longwood @ North Carolina A&T -4.1 141.0 38% 62–70 ✗
Georgia Tech @ Virginia +9.1 128.9 80% 53–63 ✓
Dartmouth @ Princeton +6.2 145.7 72% 40–85 ✓
Stetson @ Florida Gulf Coast +8.3 149.6 80% 82–89 ✓
Kansas State @ Iowa State +5.6 131.1 66% 75–69 ✗
Georgia State @ App State +4.5 131.9 70% 58–49 ✗
Valparaiso @ Missouri State +12.4 141.2 86% 66–84 ✓
VCU @ George Mason +0.8 135.0 49% 85–70 ✗
South Dakota @ Denver -0.4 146.3 48% 84–76 ✓
Samford @ East Tennessee State +3.6 150.3 69% 77–73 ✗
William & Mary @ James Madison +10.3 148.5 85% 55–69 ✓
Marquette @ Butler -5.4 134.7 30% 79–85 ✗
Tennessee Tech @ SIU Edwardsville -0.0 144.1 49% 60–61 ✗
UT Martin @ Eastern Illinois -5.5 128.8 34% 70–82 ✗
Grambling @ Texas Southern +10.8 136.7 85% 65–68 ✓
McNeese @ Northwestern State -0.2 157.8 43% 80–75 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Nicholls +5.1 147.4 73% 80–83 ✓
Presbyterian @ Winthrop +7.9 141.0 79% 61–65 ✓
Bellarmine @ North Alabama -2.6 130.8 38% 75–69 ✓
Duke @ Boston College -11.7 134.6 16% 72–61 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Alabama A&M +9.1 139.0 79% 92–94 ✓
Colgate @ Loyola Maryland -4.2 139.8 31% 64–56 ✓
Belmont @ Southeast Missouri State -11.1 156.2 14% 81–72 ✓
Tennessee State @ Austin Peay +3.8 135.1 66% 52–54 ✓
Weber State @ Idaho -8.3 155.2 21% 79–83 ✗
Idaho State @ Eastern Washington +10.3 143.1 84% 72–75 ✓
Houston Christian @ SE Louisiana +7.0 153.4 77% 84–89 ✓
Incarnate Word @ LSU New Orleans +10.1 144.6 85% 57–84 ✓
UMBC @ UMass Lowell +0.3 142.0 56% 71–88 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Lipscomb +1.6 155.5 60% 73–83 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Jacksonville State +14.3 152.7 86% 72–62 ✗
Little Rock @ Troy +10.7 139.7 87% 66–62 ✗
Toledo @ Northern Illinois -11.9 148.3 16% 100–72 ✓
Omaha @ South Dakota State +24.6 161.9 91% 61–82 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Alabama State +9.3 142.6 81% 75–70 ✗
Radford @ Hampton +0.5 130.6 43% 60–54 ✗
North Florida @ Kennesaw State +4.8 144.9 66% 74–72 ✗
Fordham @ Duquesne -0.5 135.2 43% 65–54 ✓
Arizona @ Washington -11.4 150.5 16% 92–68 ✓
Ohio State @ Michigan +2.2 143.6 64% 68–57 ✗
Vanderbilt @ Tennessee +11.8 140.0 87% 64–73 ✓
SMU @ East Carolina -6.4 144.6 30% 80–66 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Norfolk State +8.3 137.8 79% 63–70 ✓
San Francisco @ Santa Clara +1.6 153.5 53% 74–58 ✗
Campbell @ High Point +0.6 136.0 54% 60–42 ✗
Syracuse @ Virginia Tech +6.1 150.4 73% 59–71 ✓
Liberty @ Jacksonville -1.5 130.1 41% 69–73 ✗
La Salle @ Richmond +12.5 144.6 86% 63–77 ✓
DePaul @ Providence +7.8 138.1 81% 73–76 ✓
Southern @ Prairie View A&M -4.7 150.4 32% 77–84 ✗
Florida A&M @ Jackson State +2.5 126.1 59% 56–60 ✓
Hofstra @ Delaware +0.2 146.1 44% 80–66 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.