Betting Lines
| Spread | NORF -11.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Under |
| Money | NORF -700 UMES +475 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NORF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NORF +7 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | NORF -9.6 (-2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.1 (+0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NORF -7.7 (-0.7) | 138.2 (-5.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NORF -8.9 (-1.9) | 137.9 (-4.9) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NORF -8.3 (-1.3) | 137.8 (-4.8) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NORF -8.6 (-1.6) | 141.3 (-8.3) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | NORF 70 – 66 UMES |
| Jan 13, 2026 | UMES 74 – 70 NORF |
| Mar 12, 2025 | NORF 77 – 70 UMES |
| Feb 15, 2025 | NORF 75 – 63 UMES |
| Jan 4, 2025 | NORF 81 – 59 UMES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NORF | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-7 | 11-16 |
| Conference | 12-2 | 6-8 |
| Home | 11-0 | 6-4 |
| Away | 7-6 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 6-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 62.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.6 | 68.7 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#183) | -7.4 (#291) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#147) | -1.34 (#287) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#141) | -2.17 (#309) |
| RPI | 0.506 (#169) | 0.443 (#275) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NORF | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 38.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 44.9% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 23.9% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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