Betting Lines
| Spread | NORF -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | NORF -3000 UMES +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NORF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NORF +7 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | NORF -17.1 (-10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.2 (+5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NORF -13.3 (-6.3) | 139.4 (+7.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NORF -13.5 (-6.5) | 140.1 (+6.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NORF -13.8 (-6.8) | 140.9 (+6.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NORF -13.1 (-6.1) | 142.2 (+4.8) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | NORF 70 – 66 UMES |
| Jan 13, 2026 | UMES 74 – 70 NORF |
| Feb 15, 2025 | NORF 75 – 63 UMES |
| Jan 4, 2025 | NORF 81 – 59 UMES |
| Mar 5, 2024 | NORF 69 – 50 UMES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NORF | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 6-25 |
| Conference | 11-3 | 2-12 |
| Home | 11-1 | 5-7 |
| Away | 8-9 | 1-17 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 63.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 79.5 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#163) | -17.4 (#359) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#160) | -3.58 (#360) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#169) | -4.15 (#360) |
| RPI | 0.540 (#98) | 0.384 (#354) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NORF | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 39.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 45.4% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 29.2% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 55.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 65.8% | 65.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
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