Betting Lines
| Spread | NORF -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | UMES +750 NORF -1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NORF +12 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | NORF -15.4 (+3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.6 (-4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NORF -13.9 (+1.9) | 139.2 (-1.2) | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NORF -13.8 (+1.8) | 141.9 (-3.9) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NORF -14.2 (+2.2) | 139.8 (-1.8) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NORF -13.7 (+1.7) | 140.5 (-2.5) | 13% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | NORF 70 – 66 UMES |
| Jan 13, 2026 | UMES 74 – 70 NORF |
| Mar 12, 2025 | NORF 77 – 70 UMES |
| Jan 4, 2025 | NORF 81 – 59 UMES |
| Mar 5, 2024 | NORF 69 – 50 UMES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMES | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-25 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 2-12 | 11-3 |
| Home | 5-7 | 11-1 |
| Away | 1-17 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.3 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.5 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -18.5 (#361) | 0.1 (#161) |
| Bradley-Terry | -4.90 (#364) | 0.31 (#151) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -6.48 (#364) | 0.10 (#164) |
| RPI | 0.357 (#360) | 0.518 (#144) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMES | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.9% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 28.4% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 30.3 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.2% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 29.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.1% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 64.1% | 64.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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