Betting Lines
| Spread | NORF -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | NORF -258 UMES +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NORF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMES +4 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | NORF -6.5 (-10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.2 (+17.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NORF -4.0 (-8.0) | 128.8 (+15.2) | 59% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NORF -6.2 (-10.2) | 129.1 (+14.9) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NORF -3.3 (-7.3) | 126.6 (+17.4) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NORF -3.7 (-7.7) | 126.9 (+17.1) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | NORF 70 – 66 UMES |
| Mar 12, 2025 | NORF 77 – 70 UMES |
| Feb 15, 2025 | NORF 75 – 63 UMES |
| Jan 4, 2025 | NORF 81 – 59 UMES |
| Mar 5, 2024 | NORF 69 – 50 UMES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NORF | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 8-6 | 5-9 |
| Home | 9-4 | 6-4 |
| Away | 5-10 | 2-18 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 71.5 |
| Massey | -7.9 (#284) | -11.0 (#323) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.66 (#309) | -2.04 (#328) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.42 (#319) | -2.92 (#332) |
| RPI | 0.417 (#320) | 0.436 (#284) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NORF | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 27.7% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 23.2% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 17.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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