Betting Lines
| Spread | NORF -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | NORF -4000 UMES +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NORF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NORF +22 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | NORF -21.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.6 (-4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NORF -15.4 (+6.6) | 139.0 (+1.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NORF -15.7 (+6.3) | 138.5 (+1.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NORF -14.8 (+7.2) | 140.4 (-0.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NORF -15.8 (+6.2) | 139.1 (+0.9) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | NORF 70 – 66 UMES |
| Jan 13, 2026 | UMES 74 – 70 NORF |
| Mar 12, 2025 | NORF 77 – 70 UMES |
| Feb 15, 2025 | NORF 75 – 63 UMES |
| Mar 5, 2024 | NORF 69 – 50 UMES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NORF | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 6-25 |
| Conference | 11-3 | 2-12 |
| Home | 11-1 | 5-7 |
| Away | 8-9 | 1-17 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 63.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 79.5 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#127) | -15.5 (#356) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.60 (#123) | -3.51 (#358) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.48 (#135) | -4.35 (#354) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#97) | 0.404 (#330) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NORF | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 39.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 44.2% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 23.0% |
| FT Rate | 29.8% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 55.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 13.0% |
| DRB% | 64.2% | 62.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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