Betting Lines
| Spread | NORF -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | NORF -700 UMES +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NORF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NORF +19 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | NORF -13.4 (+5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.0 (-15.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NORF -10.1 (+8.9) | 133.9 (-14.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NORF -10.8 (+8.2) | 135.7 (-16.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NORF -10.5 (+8.5) | 136.2 (-17.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NORF -10.4 (+8.6) | 135.3 (-16.3) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | NORF 70 – 66 UMES |
| Jan 13, 2026 | UMES 74 – 70 NORF |
| Mar 12, 2025 | NORF 77 – 70 UMES |
| Feb 15, 2025 | NORF 75 – 63 UMES |
| Jan 4, 2025 | NORF 81 – 59 UMES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NORF | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 9-20 |
| Conference | 11-3 | 4-10 |
| Home | 15-0 | 9-4 |
| Away | 6-8 | 0-15 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | W2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 62.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 73.1 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#253) | -14.8 (#350) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#189) | -2.63 (#352) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#209) | -3.10 (#345) |
| RPI | 0.499 (#178) | 0.370 (#359) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NORF | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 37.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 28.2% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 42.1% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 31.8% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.7% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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