Betting Lines
| Spread | NORF -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | UMES +114 NORF -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NORF +4 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | NORF -0.6 (-3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.3 (+3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NORF -1.5 (-2.5) | 131.6 (+4.4) | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NORF -1.6 (-2.4) | 131.8 (+4.2) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NORF -1.6 (-2.4) | 132.0 (+4.0) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NORF -1.0 (-3.0) | 131.5 (+4.5) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 13, 2026 | UMES 74 – 70 NORF |
| Mar 12, 2025 | NORF 77 – 70 UMES |
| Feb 15, 2025 | NORF 75 – 63 UMES |
| Jan 4, 2025 | NORF 81 – 59 UMES |
| Mar 5, 2024 | NORF 69 – 50 UMES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMES | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 5-9 | 8-6 |
| Home | 6-4 | 9-4 |
| Away | 2-18 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.4 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 74.7 |
| Massey | -13.3 (#339) | -9.7 (#304) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.38 (#346) | -1.88 (#327) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.26 (#349) | -2.48 (#331) |
| RPI | 0.404 (#345) | 0.418 (#325) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMES | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 28.7% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 23.2% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 29.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 66.6% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.3% | 31.5% |
Game Analysis
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