Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | AUB -900 TA&M +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +17 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -13.8 (+3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.7 (-11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -12.0 (+5.0) | 147.9 (-14.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -12.9 (+4.1) | 147.9 (-14.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -11.8 (+5.2) | 148.8 (-15.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -11.6 (+5.4) | 149.4 (-16.4) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 7, 2026 | TA&M 90 – 88 AUB |
| Mar 5, 2025 | TA&M 83 – 72 AUB |
| Jan 10, 2024 | AUB 66 – 55 TA&M |
| Feb 8, 2023 | TA&M 83 – 78 AUB |
| Jan 26, 2023 | TA&M 79 – 63 AUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-6 | 27-13 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 9-9 |
| Home | 16-0 | 16-4 |
| Away | 8-3 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.2 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 66.4 |
| Massey | 18.4 (#8) | 7.7 (#68) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.82 (#3) | 1.36 (#74) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.66 (#3) | 1.65 (#81) |
| RPI | 0.673 (#1) | 0.530 (#119) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 40.5 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.8% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 24.9% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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