Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | TA&M +150 AUB -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TA&M win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TA&M +11 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -8.2 (+19.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.3 (+7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -5.9 (+16.9) | 147.3 (+7.7) | 34% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -4.8 (+15.8) | 145.8 (+9.2) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -5.8 (+16.8) | 147.7 (+7.3) | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -5.7 (+16.7) | 149.3 (+5.7) | 31% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 7, 2026 | TA&M 90 – 88 AUB |
| Jan 10, 2024 | AUB 66 – 55 TA&M |
| Feb 8, 2023 | TA&M 83 – 78 AUB |
| Jan 26, 2023 | TA&M 79 – 63 AUB |
| Mar 11, 2022 | TA&M 67 – 62 AUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TA&M | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 32-6 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 15-3 |
| Home | 13-3 | 13-2 |
| Away | 5-5 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 11-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.6 | 83.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 69.4 |
| Massey | 16.0 (#26) | 27.5 (#2) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.13 (#12) | 5.33 (#1) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.81 (#14) | 6.39 (#1) |
| RPI | 0.618 (#16) | 0.708 (#1) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TA&M | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 48.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 40.8 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 15.9 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 56.0% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 13.1% |
| ORB% | 41.6% | 35.2% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 45.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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