Betting Lines
| Spread | TA&M -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | TA&M -188 AUB +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TA&M win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TA&M +5 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | TA&M -1.9 (+3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.4 (+22.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TA&M -2.5 (+2.5) | 140.4 (+20.6) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TA&M -2.1 (+2.9) | 141.3 (+19.7) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TA&M -1.9 (+3.1) | 142.0 (+19.0) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TA&M -2.2 (+2.8) | 140.9 (+20.1) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 7, 2026 | TA&M 90 – 88 AUB |
| Mar 5, 2025 | TA&M 83 – 72 AUB |
| Jan 10, 2024 | AUB 66 – 55 TA&M |
| Jan 26, 2023 | TA&M 79 – 63 AUB |
| Mar 11, 2022 | TA&M 67 – 62 AUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TA&M | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 10-8 |
| Home | 15-1 | 14-2 |
| Away | 7-4 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 3-5 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 67.7 |
| Massey | 10.5 (#42) | 12.2 (#29) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.60 (#56) | 2.09 (#31) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.91 (#62) | 2.48 (#39) |
| RPI | 0.572 (#57) | 0.615 (#19) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TA&M | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 28.8% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 37.4% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 32.4% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 43.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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