Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.0 Under |
| Money | AUB -320 TA&M +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +11 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -11.4 (-0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.8 (-26.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -9.4 (+1.6) | 143.5 (-22.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -9.4 (+1.6) | 141.1 (-20.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -10.5 (+0.5) | 143.7 (-22.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -9.0 (+2.0) | 143.6 (-22.6) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 7, 2026 | TA&M 90 – 88 AUB |
| Mar 5, 2025 | TA&M 83 – 72 AUB |
| Feb 8, 2023 | TA&M 83 – 78 AUB |
| Jan 26, 2023 | TA&M 79 – 63 AUB |
| Mar 11, 2022 | TA&M 67 – 62 AUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 21-15 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 9-9 |
| Home | 15-1 | 10-5 |
| Away | 5-5 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.1 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 72.0 |
| Massey | 18.0 (#7) | 10.7 (#47) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.44 (#26) | 1.56 (#64) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.17 (#28) | 1.98 (#65) |
| RPI | 0.631 (#18) | 0.565 (#75) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 26.6% |
| REB / G | 41.1 | 42.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 18.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.85 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 44.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.7% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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