Betting Lines
| Spread | GAST -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | APP +105 GAST -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GAST +9 | 107 | Lost |
| Massey | APP -5.6 (-14.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.8 (-23.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -4.1 (-13.1) | 132.9 (-25.9) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -5.0 (-14.0) | 132.4 (-25.4) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | APP -4.5 (-13.5) | 131.9 (-24.9) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -4.1 (-13.1) | 133.8 (-26.8) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 9, 2026 | APP 52 – 50 GAST |
| Dec 20, 2025 | GAST 70 – 63 APP |
| Feb 15, 2025 | GAST 70 – 65 APP |
| Feb 1, 2025 | APP 80 – 76 GAST |
| Feb 2, 2024 | APP 81 – 71 GAST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 18-11 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 9-5 |
| Home | 11-5 | 8-4 |
| Away | 6-7 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.3 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.3 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#163) | -2.3 (#214) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.75 (#116) | -0.29 (#201) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.86 (#115) | -0.10 (#182) |
| RPI | 0.557 (#75) | 0.471 (#217) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 38.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 44.4% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 23.6% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.2% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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