Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -13.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Over |
| Money | MTST -1100 NAU +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +2 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -15.2 (-13.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.3 (+4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -11.6 (-9.6) | 136.7 (+5.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -11.8 (-9.8) | 139.0 (+3.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -12.7 (-10.7) | 137.9 (+4.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -12.9 (-10.9) | 139.2 (+2.8) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | MTST 76 – 65 NAU |
| Jan 4, 2026 | MTST 77 – 68 NAU |
| Feb 7, 2025 | NAU 69 – 64 MTST |
| Jan 12, 2025 | MTST 58 – 53 NAU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | NAU 76 – 71 MTST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 5-15 |
| Home | 13-1 | 5-10 |
| Away | 9-6 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 65.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#136) | -10.6 (#323) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.85 (#112) | -1.59 (#300) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.05 (#107) | -2.05 (#306) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#105) | 0.444 (#272) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 13.8% |
| DRB% | 76.3% | 76.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.5% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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