Betting Lines
| Spread | MSM -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.0 Under |
| Money | SFPA +140 MSM -160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFPA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSM +2 | 106 | Lost |
| Massey | MSM -1.6 (-0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.4 (-27.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSM -2.2 (+0.2) | 135.1 (-29.1) | 41% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -2.6 (+0.6) | 130.9 (-24.9) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSM -1.7 (-0.3) | 133.7 (-27.7) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSM -1.8 (-0.2) | 134.6 (-28.6) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 12, 2025 | MSM 74 – 66 SFPA |
| Nov 17, 2024 | MSM 66 – 58 SFPA |
| Dec 16, 2023 | MSM 72 – 65 SFPA |
| Jan 29, 2022 | MSM 71 – 54 SFPA |
| Feb 26, 2021 | MSM 72 – 65 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFPA | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-21 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 9-9 |
| Home | 4-8 | 8-7 |
| Away | 5-13 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 64.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 65.4 |
| Massey | -9.8 (#317) | -5.1 (#259) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.29 (#333) | -1.27 (#279) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.56 (#326) | -1.54 (#272) |
| RPI | 0.409 (#322) | 0.471 (#219) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFPA | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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