Betting Lines
| Spread | MSM -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | SFPA +125 MSM -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFPA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSM +7 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | MSM -1.3 (-5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.6 (+14.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSM -0.1 (-6.9) | 128.7 (+8.3) | 47% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -1.5 (-5.5) | 128.7 (+8.3) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSM -0.3 (-6.7) | 128.3 (+8.7) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSM -0.3 (-6.7) | 129.2 (+7.8) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 12, 2025 | MSM 74 – 66 SFPA |
| Nov 17, 2024 | MSM 66 – 58 SFPA |
| Dec 16, 2023 | MSM 72 – 65 SFPA |
| Feb 12, 2022 | MSM 54 – 52 SFPA |
| Jan 29, 2022 | MSM 71 – 54 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFPA | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-16 | 12-11 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 9-7 |
| Home | 4-6 | 6-3 |
| Away | 2-10 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.9 | 63.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 62.2 |
| Massey | -5.3 (#255) | -1.7 (#190) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.90 (#250) | -0.07 (#175) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.82 (#222) | 0.07 (#163) |
| RPI | 0.461 (#237) | 0.516 (#144) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFPA | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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