Betting Lines
| Spread | MSM -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | SFPA +240 MSM -333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFPA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSM +7 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | MSM -4.0 (-3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.7 (+3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSM -3.0 (-4.0) | 133.3 (+3.7) | 35% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -5.3 (-1.7) | 131.9 (+5.1) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSM -3.7 (-3.3) | 133.7 (+3.3) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSM -2.2 (-4.8) | 134.2 (+2.8) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 12, 2025 | MSM 74 – 66 SFPA |
| Nov 17, 2024 | MSM 66 – 58 SFPA |
| Feb 12, 2022 | MSM 54 – 52 SFPA |
| Jan 29, 2022 | MSM 71 – 54 SFPA |
| Feb 26, 2021 | MSM 72 – 65 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFPA | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-22 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 3-13 | 9-11 |
| Home | 6-8 | 8-5 |
| Away | 2-14 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L6 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.2 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -11.7 (#334) | -2.8 (#224) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.73 (#305) | -2.04 (#323) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.41 (#332) | -2.53 (#312) |
| RPI | 0.401 (#314) | 0.393 (#324) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFPA | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.3% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 24.4% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.66 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.8% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 22.8% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 22.7% |
| DRB% | 63.7% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.