Betting Lines
| Spread | MSM -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | SFPA +230 MSM -280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFPA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSM +8 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | SFPA -4.9 (-12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.0 (-13.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSM -0.1 (-7.9) | 139.7 (+0.3) | 50% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | MSM -1.7 (-6.3) | 135.0 (+5.0) | 53% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | SFPA -0.1 (-8.1) | 142.2 (-2.2) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFPA -1.7 (-9.7) | 144.0 (-4.0) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 17, 2024 | MSM 66 – 58 SFPA |
| Dec 16, 2023 | MSM 72 – 65 SFPA |
| Feb 12, 2022 | MSM 54 – 52 SFPA |
| Jan 29, 2022 | MSM 71 – 54 SFPA |
| Feb 26, 2021 | MSM 72 – 65 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFPA | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-24 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 11-9 |
| Home | 5-8 | 8-5 |
| Away | 2-14 | 7-11 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.0 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.1 | 71.0 |
| Massey | -15.5 (#354) | -7.9 (#313) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.29 (#317) | -1.80 (#332) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.14 (#327) | -2.57 (#334) |
| RPI | 0.188 (#329) | 0.521 (#130) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFPA | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 39.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 21.4% |
| REB / G | 27.5 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.3% | 43.8% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 26.1% |
| ORB% | 21.8% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 9.3% | 32.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 62.6% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 9.9% |
| DRB% | 56.7% | 80.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 35.8% |
Game Analysis
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