Betting Lines
| Spread | MSM -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | MSM -320 SFPA +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSM +8 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | MSM -11.5 (-3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.2 (-28.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSM -7.5 (+0.5) | 145.5 (-21.5) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -8.0 (-0.0) | 142.7 (-18.7) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSM -6.5 (+1.5) | 146.9 (-22.9) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSM -8.7 (-0.7) | 146.7 (-22.7) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 12, 2025 | MSM 74 – 66 SFPA |
| Dec 16, 2023 | MSM 72 – 65 SFPA |
| Feb 12, 2022 | MSM 54 – 52 SFPA |
| Jan 29, 2022 | MSM 71 – 54 SFPA |
| Feb 26, 2021 | MSM 72 – 65 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSM | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 8-8 |
| Home | 10-4 | 10-4 |
| Away | 9-8 | 6-13 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 73.4 |
| Massey | -1.3 (#199) | -5.6 (#279) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.51 (#18) | 0.48 (#141) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.04 (#10) | 0.37 (#160) |
| RPI | 0.681 (#41) | 0.600 (#91) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSM | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 28.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.66 | 0.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 26.1% | 24.4% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 20.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 15.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 56.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.0% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 65.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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