Betting Lines
| Spread | MSM -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSM +17 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | MSM -6.9 (+10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.3 (-9.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSM -5.8 (+11.2) | 135.0 (-10.0) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -6.4 (+10.6) | 133.9 (-8.9) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSM -5.3 (+11.7) | 135.2 (-10.2) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSM -6.3 (+10.7) | 134.8 (-9.8) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 12, 2025 | MSM 74 – 66 SFPA |
| Nov 17, 2024 | MSM 66 – 58 SFPA |
| Dec 16, 2023 | MSM 72 – 65 SFPA |
| Feb 12, 2022 | MSM 54 – 52 SFPA |
| Feb 26, 2021 | MSM 72 – 65 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSM | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 9-21 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 5-13 |
| Home | 8-7 | 4-8 |
| Away | 6-11 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.4 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.4 | 74.2 |
| Massey | -5.7 (#269) | -9.3 (#314) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.23 (#274) | -2.08 (#324) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.61 (#279) | -2.48 (#321) |
| RPI | 0.461 (#234) | 0.400 (#326) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSM | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 17.7% |
Game Analysis
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