Betting Lines
| Spread | COLG -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | L-MD +190 COLG -230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | L-MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLG +8 | 120 | Lost |
| Massey | COLG -4.6 (-3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.7 (-17.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLG -4.2 (-3.8) | 135.7 (-15.7) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLG -3.5 (-4.5) | 138.5 (-18.5) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COLG -4.2 (-3.8) | 139.8 (-19.8) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLG -3.8 (-4.2) | 139.7 (-19.7) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | COLG 90 – 77 L-MD |
| Feb 21, 2026 | COLG 101 – 98 L-MD |
| Jan 15, 2026 | COLG 86 – 80 L-MD |
| Feb 23, 2025 | L-MD 84 – 65 COLG |
| Feb 8, 2025 | COLG 82 – 68 L-MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | L-MD | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 16-2 |
| Home | 10-3 | 15-1 |
| Away | 3-12 | 8-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.0 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 67.6 |
| Massey | -5.6 (#264) | 2.1 (#132) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#260) | -0.48 (#218) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.26 (#261) | -0.32 (#200) |
| RPI | 0.456 (#253) | 0.491 (#190) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | L-MD | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 39.5% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 23.2% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 16.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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