Betting Lines
| Spread | COLG -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | L-MD +165 COLG -195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | L-MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | L-MD +19 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | COLG -1.6 (+20.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.8 (+5.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLG -0.9 (+19.9) | 142.7 (+6.3) | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLG -2.9 (+21.9) | 142.1 (+6.9) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLG -1.4 (+20.4) | 141.3 (+7.7) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | COLG -1.3 (+20.3) | 142.2 (+6.8) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | COLG 90 – 77 L-MD |
| Feb 21, 2026 | COLG 101 – 98 L-MD |
| Jan 15, 2026 | COLG 86 – 80 L-MD |
| Feb 8, 2025 | COLG 82 – 68 L-MD |
| Feb 10, 2024 | COLG 76 – 62 L-MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | L-MD | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 10-8 |
| Home | 7-7 | 10-4 |
| Away | 5-12 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.7 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -9.4 (#315) | -4.6 (#244) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.59 (#313) | -1.02 (#268) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.94 (#306) | -1.20 (#262) |
| RPI | 0.425 (#321) | 0.466 (#250) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | L-MD | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 16.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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