Betting Lines
| Spread | COLG -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | L-MD +360 COLG -470 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | L-MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLG +6 | 166 | Lost |
| Massey | COLG -8.3 (+2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.3 (+11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLG -7.3 (+1.3) | 145.7 (+20.3) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLG -7.6 (+1.6) | 145.0 (+21.0) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COLG -7.4 (+1.4) | 147.1 (+18.9) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLG -7.7 (+1.7) | 146.0 (+20.0) | 25% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | COLG 90 – 77 L-MD |
| Feb 21, 2026 | COLG 101 – 98 L-MD |
| Feb 23, 2025 | L-MD 84 – 65 COLG |
| Feb 8, 2025 | COLG 82 – 68 L-MD |
| Feb 10, 2024 | COLG 76 – 62 L-MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | L-MD | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 11-7 |
| Home | 8-6 | 9-5 |
| Away | 3-13 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.5 | 76.2 |
| Massey | -13.4 (#342) | -1.7 (#191) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.04 (#350) | -0.74 (#234) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.81 (#348) | -0.71 (#217) |
| RPI | 0.353 (#360) | 0.491 (#189) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | L-MD | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.6% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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